One of the often overlooked aspects of the 2016 election is the enthusiasm gap. Many Democrats will vote for Hillary Clinton simply because she’s the Democrat but they don’t like her. Trump on the other hand, has lots of enthusiasm among his supporters.
That enthusiasm seems to be showing up in voter registrations.
Hope for Trump: GOP winning registration race in key states
For weeks, Donald Trump has watched his poll standing in battleground states plummet, from Pennsylvania, where his strength among Rust Belt families was supposed to turn a blue state competitive, to North Carolina, where Democrats had been making inroads in recent elections, to the ultimate battleground of them all: Florida.
Trump’s poll numbers remain dire, but he can point to at least one ray of hope for a turnaround: Republicans have continued gaining ground in recent months in voter registration in Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Iowa, while the late surge in Democratic registrations relative to Republican registrations that occurred in battleground states during the final months of the 2012 election had not been replicated in numbers released in early August.
“The atmospherics of voter registration trends in those states do not point to a strong Democratic year, so that’s one negative the Trump campaign does not have to deal with at this point,” said Louisiana pollster John Couvillon, who added that spikes in registration can add a point or two to a candidate’s vote share in a close race. “The voter registration data I’m seeing does not support the idea of a surge in Democratic voter enthusiasm.”
Anyone who watched the Democratic National Convention knows there is a lack of enthusiasm for Hillary.
In the case of the protesters outside the convention, there was even hostility.