Realclearpolitics.com has the following electoral map right now. They did an average of all the leading polls to get this map.
Electoral vote totals in the “safe states” (red or blue) are:
Trump (red): 164
Hillary (blue): 203
In the remaining gray states, what’s going on?
The pollsters say those states are a toss-up. But they’re wrong.
- Pollsters are wrong on the percentage of white voters relative to other voting groups.
- Pollsters are ignoring the increased Republican turnout this year.
- Pollsters are underestimating the numbers of Democrats voting for Trump – the “Trumpocrats.”
Statespoll.com has gone state-by-state and adjusted the polls for these factors. Each day, they publish realistic numbers for key states.
Here are the latest results for key states (click on the adjusted numbers to see the analysis for each state):
North Carolina: Trump +9.1%
Remington, 11/1-11/2, 2596 Likely Voters
TRUMP 48% | Hillar 45% | Johnson 3%
Adjusted: TRUMP 50.9% | Hillary 41.8% | Johnson 3.3%
Florida: Trump +6.7%
YouGov 11/2-11/4, 1188 Registered Voters
TRUMP 45% | Hillary 45% | Johnson 4% | Stein 2%
Adjusted: TRUMP 48.1% | Hillary 41.4% | Johnson 4.5% | Stein 2.8%
Pennsylvania: Trump +3.3%
Remington 11/1-11/2, 2683 Likely Voters
Hillary 46% | TRUMP 45% | Johnson 4%
Adjusted: TRUMP 46.6% | Hillary 43.6% | Johnson 4.4%
Note from Statespoll.com: Remington didn’t include stein, with Stein perhaps hillary’s numbers could be minus 1~2%.
With those six states in the Trump column plus Ohio and Georgia (Trump +5.2%) and several others, here’s what Statespoll.com believes the election will look like:
Bottom line: When you adjust the polls for real voters in 2016, you get very different results.
Trump: 315 electoral votes
Toss up: 23
That’s what real polling numbers show.
They’re showing a Trump landslide!