Pollsters are still mystified by Trump’s win.
They still don’t know why they failed.
The final poll from the Reuters State of the Nation project put the odds at 90 percent that Clinton, the Democratic nominee, would win; The Huffington Post’s model predicted a 98.2 percent chance of Clinton winning; and The New York Times’s Upshot put them at 85 percent. Both thought that Clinton would win the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Now, they’re trying to figure out what they did wrong.
But they’ve missed it again!
To do better in 2020, pollsters told The Hill they need to adopt a “mixed-mode” approach that embraces a host of different polling methods and outside data, and that would ensure people are reached not just by landlines but through smartphones and online. James Zogby, an early adopter of online polls, cast the skepticism of online polls as unwise, noting that internet access among likely voters is near the level of landline telephone access at its peak. “There has to be a greater appreciation for the technology and a greater understanding of social changes,” he said.
In fact, technology wasn’t the problem. The problem wasn’t landlines.
The problem was biased polling.
We predicted the day before the election that Trump would win in a landslide (Click here for article).
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The prediction was based on analysis by Statespoll.com.
Statespoll.com adjusted the numbers to account for three important factors:
- Pollsters were wrong on the percentage of white voters relative to other voting groups.
- Pollsters were ignoring the increased Republican turnout this year.
- Pollsters were underestimating the numbers of Democrats voting for Trump – the “Trumpocrats.”
When you adjusted the polls for those factors, it became obvious: Trump would win in a landslide!
Here’s what Statespoll.com predicted the election results would be on November 3rd:
Here’s what the final results were:
A lot closer than the biased polls that said Hillary would win in a landslide!
And still the biased pollsters don’t see it. They still want to blame technology.
They were wrong on the polling because they were biased.
Weeks after the election: Biased pollsters still won’t admit why they failed!!
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