Anthony Salvanto is the head pollster for CBS News. He doesn’t see a blue wave coming in the midterms this fall and he recently explained why. Republican voters are expected to turn out.
The New York Post reports:
CBS News pollster reveals why ‘blue wave’ is unlikely
This year, the CBS Battleground Tracker “is concentrating on the districts that we think will make a difference,” he said. “Remember, in a midterm, you have to watch each congressional seat — don’t pay attention to national numbers.”
Just as a presidential race is not a national contest but a collection of 51 separate elections (one for each state and for the District of Columbia), November’s midterm involves elections for 435 House districts and 35 Senate seats. The collective result will determine which party gains enough seats to control each congressional chamber.
“For pollsters, midterms are the most interesting and difficult challenge we face,” Salvanto said.
Not only must they consider 470 unique races, “there’s never more than a third or at best 40 percent turnout in midterm elections,” he noted. “So we’re looking for a subsample of a subsample” of voters…
“Right now I think this election looks like a toss-up,” Salvanto said. “We see a Democrat pickup in the House of Representatives in the 20-odd seat range, but Republicans could certainly hold on to the House.” The GOP holds a slim 43-seat House majority, with six vacancies.
“Even though Republicans have not fared well in special elections so far this cycle, it does look like they will be turning out for the midterms,” Salvanto said.
If Democrats fail to take the House or the Senate, we will likely see a repeat of the liberal meltdown we witnessed after the 2016 election.