For the last two years, Democrats and their allies in media have been telling their supporters that they are going to sweep the House and the Senate in the midterms this fall. But a new report and poll from CNBC is now trying to tamp down expectations.
Don’t expect a big Democratic wave this fall, a new CNBC poll says
With economic optimism soaring in the country, will Democrats be able to sweep to power in either house of Congress or will buoyant sentiment help Republicans keep hold of their Congressional majorities?
The latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey offers mixed signals, but leans against a wave Democratic election like that those that swept Republicans to power in 2010 and 2014.
The poll of 800 Americans across the country, with a margin of error of 3.5 percent, found a six-point Democratic lead on the question of who voters will choose in the November congressional elections. The 42 percent to 36 percent margin is not far from what pollsters would expect given the greater percentage of Democratic registered voters.
“A six point differential is not something that’s going to cause a big electoral wave,” said Micah Roberts, the Republican pollster on the CNBC poll, a partner Public Opinion Strategies. “Economic confidence that people have among a lot of groups is providing a buffer” for Republicans.
Indeed, the poll found that 48 percent of the public is optimistic about the current economy and optimistic it will get better, the highest level in the poll’s 11-year history and more than double the 20 percent registered in the December 2016 survey.
If Democrats fail to take the House or the Senate, the meltdown from the left will be even worse than after the 2016 election.
Republicans can’t take this poll for granted, however. People must get out and vote.