Democrat Pollster Doug Schoen Says The Red Wave Could Become A Red Tsunami

A couple of weeks ago, Democrat pollster Doug Schoen was saying to brace for a red wave.

Now he is saying this could be a red tsunami.

It certainly seems possible. All of the momentum is moving in ways that are favorable to Republicans.

Schoen writes at The Hill:

How the impending red wave could become a tsunami

The Republican Party’s midterm prospects have markedly improved over the last several weeks. But will 2022 be a red wave election year on par with GOP victories in 1994 and 2010?

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The warning signs are clearly flashing for the Democratic Party. Recent polling finds that support for Republicans — both generically and in individual races — has increased substantially amid heightened national concerns about the economy and crime, two issues that the GOP leads on. Meanwhile, protecting abortion rights, the crux of the Democratic agenda has become a much less salient issue.

Based on current trends, Republicans will likely gain between 30 to 35 House seats, and come away with a one or two-seat advantage in the Senate. This outcome would flip both chambers of Congress to GOP control, but wouldn’t necessarily rise to 1994 or 2010 levels, when Democrats lost 53 and 63 House seats, respectively.

In order for the GOP to see a net gain of 50 House seats, the party would need to win every single one of the 37 races rated as a “toss-up” by RealClearPolitics, in addition to the 225 where they are favored. Under this scenario, Republicans would come away with a 262-seat majority, for a net gain of 50 seats…

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Republicans’ lead in the generic congressional vote has widened by 2-points in just two weeks — from roughly 0.5-points on Oct. 12 to 2.5-points on Oct. 28, per RealClearPolitics’ average. A number of individual polls, including Emerson’s latest survey among likely voters, show an even stronger Republican advantage of 5-points.

Other people are using the same language.

We’ll know in about a week.


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