The party that’s out of power always has the advantage heading into the midterm elections, but this year might be special.
Republicans could make the kind of massive gains not seen since 2010, when they picked up 60 seats in the House.
Democrat pollster John Zogby says Republicans are holding all the cards.
The Washington Examiner reports:
Democratic pollster: ‘Big Republican advantage going into 2022’
Independent voters are fleeing the Democratic Party and President Joe Biden, building on the likelihood of a big GOP victory in the House and Senate midterm elections next fall.
Democratic pollster John Zogby said that his new survey showed that independent voters are in charge of the election, and they are trending away from the Democrats.
He said that voters favor Republican control of Congress 46% to 43%, a helpful margin for the GOP that would appear to put continued Democratic control of the House and Senate out of reach.
His data also show independents swinging to Republicans. “While 93% of Democrats favor Democratic control, and 92% of Republicans favor Republican control — independents prefer Republican control of Congress 45% to 27% Democrat, leaving 28% undecided,” said his analysis of the survey of 777 likely voters nationwide, conducted Dec. 17 online. It has an overall margin of sampling error of 3.6 percentage points.
Independent voters are key, and they’re trending Republican.
The New York Post reports:
GOP holds double-digit lead among independent voters ahead of 2022 midterms: poll
A new poll indicates that self-described independent voters would prefer, by an 18 percentage-point margin, that Republicans regain control of Congress in next year’s midterm elections.
The poll by John Zogby Strategies, released last week, found that 45 percent of independents want the GOP in charge of the House and Senate, compared to 27 percent who want Democrats to keep their majority. The remaining 28 percent said they were undecided.
The same survey found that Republicans held a three-point advantage, 46 percent to 43 percent, on the generic congressional ballot.
“In my four decades of polling, Democrats need about a five percentage-point advantage [in] nationwide congressional preference in order to maintain a majority of Congress,” pollster John Zogby said in a statement. “With a three-point Republican lead, and a substantial lead among independents, signs are pointing today to the possibility of a big Republican advantage going into 2022.”
If these trends hold, the midterms are going to be amazing for Republicans.