Election Forecaster Nate Silver Admits He Has No Idea What’s Going To Happen

Nate Silver, who got the 2016 election completely wrong, has been giving the Democrats a massive advantage in the midterms for weeks. Now, just before the election, he is admitting that anything could happen.

PJ Media reports:

Will Democrats Retake the House? Nate Silver Admits He Doesn’t Know What’s Going to Happen

A rare bit of candor from a top-line pollster, Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight, who says “both outcomes” — Democratic takeover or Republican hold — are “extremely possible.”

The Hill:

“So in the House we have Democrats with about a 4 in 5 chance of winning,” Silver told ABC’s “This Week.”

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However, he noted that “polls aren’t always right.”

“The range of outcomes in the House is really wide,” he explained. “Our range, which covers 80 percent of outcomes goes from, on the low end, about 15 Democratic pickups, all the way to low to mid 50s, 52 or 53.”

“Most of those are under 23, which is how many seats they would need to win to take the House,” he said.”

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“But no one should be surprised if they only win 19 seats and no one should be surprised if they win 51 seats,” Silver added. “Those are both extremely possible, based on how accurate polls are in the real world.”

Silver sounds uneasy. That’s not good for a pollster. But as we enter the final hours of campaigning, we can say a few things with relative certainty.

Be prepared for anything and vote! We’ll know soon enough how things turn out.


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