It’s Starting To Look Like Democrats Are Going To Lose The Senate This Year

Evryone already expects that Democrats are going to lose the House this November in the midterms.

But now it’s starting to look like they could lose the Senate too.

If that happens, Biden’s presidency is effectively over.

From Slow Boring:

Traditionally, the President’s party averages roughly 47.5% of the two-party vote1 in midterms. Right now, in FiveThirtyEight’s average of public polls, Democrats are polling at 48.7%. However, the President’s party also tends to decline in standing as the midterms approach, as the graph below shows (you can read more about the historical evidence for this decline here)…

Additionally, polls have been biased towards Democrats in two of the last three cycles, and there is reason to think this bias will persist. The current 48.7% polling average may well be an overestimation.

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Between those two factors, it’s reasonable to assume that Democrats are looking at a vote share between 47% and 48.5% this cycle. This means Republicans will probably win the generic ballot by between three and six percent, and the median scenario is probably Republicans winning by around 4.5%. Since Joe Biden won by 4.5% in 2020, this would mean that the national environment has shifted 9 percentage points to the right.

Hot Air suggests the Democrats could lose 3-4 Senate seats:

For comparison purposes, when Cook Political Report published its analysis of House races, they suggested the generic ballot had shifted 7 points toward the GOP since 2020. The Slow Boring analysis puts the shift at 9 points. The result of this is that Senate Democrats who won in states Biden won by less than 9 points are probably in trouble. Specifically, Sen. Mark Kelly in Arizona, Sen. Raphael Warnock in Georgia, Sen. Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire and Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto in Nevada…

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So Democrats are likely to lose 3-4 Senate seats this year and that’s just the start of their troubles. Bazelon goes on to point out that 2024 is looking ever worse for Democrats.

This would cause a full-on meltdown on the left and it could very well happen.


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