Trump supporters don’t put much faith in polls, and for good reasons. But the last poll out of Iowa is somewhat special.
It shows a huge swing away from Biden and towards Trump.
This happened in 2016 and it ended up working out pretty well for Trump.
From the Des Moines Register:
Iowa Poll: Donald Trump takes over lead in Iowa as Joe Biden fades
Republican President Donald Trump has taken over the lead in Iowa as Democratic former Vice President Joe Biden has faded, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows just days before Election Day.
The president now leads by 7 percentage points over Biden, 48% to 41%. Three percent say they will vote for someone else, 2% aren’t sure and 5% don’t want to say for whom they will vote.
In September’s Iowa Poll, the candidates were tied at 47% to 47%.
Matt Margolis of PJ Media explains the significance of this:
The Latest Poll Out of Iowa Foreshadows Disaster for Biden
Yeah, yeah, yeah, polls shouldn’t be trusted.
But hear me out.
Never-Trumper Bill Kristol recalled the significance of the last Des Moines Register (DMR) poll in a Friday tweet prior to the poll’s release. “I remember well my phone conversation with a smart Republican friend (sadly, pro-Trump) Sat. eve, Nov. 5, 2016, after the final DMR poll of IA at Trump +7. He said, if IA is +7, then Trump has a good shot in PA/WI/MI, and could win the whole thing. I was worried. He was right.”
Trump ultimately won Iowa in 2016 by 9.4 points.
Here’s Bill Kristol’s tweet:
I remember well my phone conversation with a smart Republican friend (sadly, pro-Trump) Sat. eve, Nov. 5, 2016, after the final DMR poll of IA at Trump +7. He said, if IA is +7, then Trump has a good shot in PA/WI/MI, and could win the whole thing. I was worried. He was right. https://t.co/li1sTAYCP1
— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) October 31, 2020
This looks very good for Trump’s odds.
We should know in about 24 hours.