Moody’s has an outstanding record on making predictions like this one.
They are saying that according to their model, Trump is going to win reelection in 2020.
Trump is on his way to an easy win in 2020, according to Moody’s accurate election model
President Donald Trump looks likely to cruise to reelection next year under three different economic models Moody’s Analytics employed to gauge the 2020 race.
Barring anything unusual happening, the president’s Electoral College victory could easily surpass his 2016 win over Democrat Hillary Clinton, which came by a 304-227 count.
Moody’s based its projections on how consumers feel about their own financial situation, the gains the stock market has achieved during Trump’s tenure and the prospects for unemployment, which has fallen to a 50-year low. Should those variables hold up, the president looks set to get another four-year term.
The modeling has been highly accurate going back to the 1980 election, missing only once.
“If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump’s election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren’t enthusiastic and don’t get out to vote,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics and co-author of the paper along with Dan White, the firm’s director of government counsulting and fiscal policy research, and Bernard Yaros, an assistant director and economist. “It’s about turnout.”
Trump supporters can’t take anything for granted, but this is very encouraging news for them.
“President Donald Trump looks likely to cruise to re-election next year under three different economic models Moody’s Analytics employed to gauge the 2020 race.”
Trump is on his way to an easy win in 2020, according to Moody's accurate election model https://t.co/UbZXsjKAVR
— Jason Miller (@JasonMillerinDC) October 15, 2019
Moody's Election Models Predict Trump Will Crush Democrat in 2020
— Raghu (@RaghuramanMenon) October 16, 2019
“The modeling has been highly accurate going back to the 1980 election, missing only once” https://t.co/C4mkqBmXlC
— Richard Madan (@RichardMadan) October 15, 2019
Democrats certainly aren’t doing much to help their own cause.