Democrats have been overconfident about their chances in 2020 for months.
They have wrongly assumed that a majority of Americans agree with them about Trump. Their successes in the 2018 midterms only reinforced this belief.
New polls regarding swing states in 2020 say something very different and even liberals in media are talking about it.
Jonathan Chait writes at NY Mag:
New Poll Shows Democratic Candidates Have Been Living in a Fantasy World
In 2018, Democratic candidates waded into hostile territory and flipped 40 House districts, many of them moderate or conservative in their makeup. In almost every instance, their formula centered on narrowing their target profile by avoiding controversial positions, and focusing obsessively on Republican weaknesses, primarily Donald Trump’s abuses of power and attempts to eliminate health insurance for millions of Americans.
The Democratic presidential field has largely abandoned that model. Working from the premise that the country largely agrees with them on everything, or that agreeing with the majority of voters on issues is not necessary to win, the campaign has proceeded in blissful unawareness of the extremely high chance that Trump will win again.
A new batch of swing state polls from the New York Times ought to deliver a bracing shock to Democrats. The polls find that, in six swing states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona — Trump is highly competitive. He trails Joe Biden there by the narrowest of margins, and leads Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.
Trump’s ability to hold onto the swing states in 2020 is probably going to come down to one key issue. The economy.
FOX Business reports:
Could the economies in these swing states affect the 2020 election?
With about one year to go until the 2020 election, President Trump has been traveling around the country hammering home ways his administration has fought to promote U.S. economic growth, and the effects on Americans’ wallets, retirement accounts and job prospects.
Democrats, however, are telling a different story. It’s one where large corporations and their CEOs have become rich on the backs of hardworking Americans.
The two opposing narratives point to a similar conclusion: the economy is likely to be a deciding factor when voters head to the polls.
The U.S. unemployment rate is 3.6 percent, which is near historic lows. The domestic economy grew at a pace of 1.9 percent in the third quarter, which was faster than expectations. Concerns remain that an ongoing trade war with China, which has included tariffs imposed by both governments, is slowing economic growth.
Having jobs and a strong economy is pretty popular with Americans.