Nate Silver is a pollster who enjoys respect from people of all political stripes for his ability to forecast elections accurately and he has some great news for Trump supporters.
Business Insider reported:
NATE SILVER: Donald Trump would most likely win the election if it were held today
If the election were held Monday, Donald Trump would likely win.
That’s what renowned statistician Nate Silver projected on Monday for his data journalism outlet FiveThirtyEight.
In his “Now-cast” election model for who would win if ballots were cast Monday, Silver gave the Republican nominee a 57.5% chance of winning the presidency.
Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had a 42.5% chance of securing the nation’s highest office if voters were to take to the polls Monday.
Silver’s model had Trump winning in the swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. He would win 285 electoral votes in Silver’s model.
It’s the first time in Silver’s “Now-cast” forecast that Trump has been projected to win.
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However, in Silver’s polls-only forecast and in his polls-plus forecast, Clinton was still favored to come out on top. In the polls-only model, Clinton had a 53.7% chance of winning, while in the polls-plus model, Silver gave Clinton a 58.2% chance of winning in November. But those numbers are a drastic drop-off from where they recently were — hovering around 80%.
See Nate Silver’s website for the breakdown here.
While we’re on the subject of polls, it’s worth mentioning that Trump is now leading Clinton in the Real Clear Politics average of all polls.
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