RED WAVE: As Midterms Get Closer, Polling Shifts Back To Favoring Republicans

Over the summer, the media kept pushing a narrative about the midterms that suggested Democrats were polling extremely well and would buck history by winning the midterms.

Now that the midterms are just weeks away, polling is shifting back to what it was earlier in the year, suggesting that Republicans are poised for big wins.

A new Monmouth poll shows a ten point swing towards Republicans over the last month.

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Another Dem-Friendly Poll Shifts Dramatically Towards the GOP as a Possible Red-Wave Reappears

I’m running out of ways to say “I told you so,” but another piece of empirical evidence released on Monday points in that direction.

Back in August, in the midst of all the “Democrats are surging” talk, Monmouth put out a poll showing Democrats up seven points. Their latest iteration? Republicans are now leading by two points. When adjusted for registered voters, the swing is D+3 to R+2…

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This is why you don’t ignore the fundamentals to latch onto low-turnout special elections in areas that favor Democrats (namely, higher educated suburbs). History tells us that parties in power get shellacked in their first mid-term of a new presidency. Primary turnout, which has been a dead-on predictor the last four cycles, has also heavily favored the GOP, even after Dobbs was released and supposedly became a big issue.

Further, summer polling in general is just trash. You can go back multiple cycles and find that the polling industry consistently overestimates Democrat support during the summer months. For example, in 2014, a wave year for Republicans, the GOP didn’t take the generic ballot lead until October.

This is great news for the GOP.

Republicans can’t take anything for granted, but this looks good for them.

Very good.

 

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