If you listen to the media, you will hear two things almost every day.
First, they will tell you that Biden is leading Trump in all of the polls. Next, they will tell you that early voting is benefiting Joe Biden.
It turns out that there are problems with both of these points.
Early voting is not helping Biden which would seem to suggest that the polls are off.
The Washington Examiner reports:
Early voting data in battleground states shows Trump outpacing national polls giving Biden an edge
The Republican Party is keeping pace in mail-in and early voting in three key swing states despite polls showing early voting should clearly favor Joe Biden.
Data out of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio indicates that registered Republicans are returning ballots at about the same rate as registered Democrats in the battleground states.
In Michigan as of Wednesday, just over 1 million ballots have been returned, 40% from registered Democrats, with the same from registered Republicans. In Wisconsin, 40% of the 711,855 returned ballots have been from Democrats, while 38% have come from Republicans. The GOP actually leads in Ohio, with 45% of 475,259 early ballot returns coming from Republicans, compared to 43% from registered Democrats. The preliminary data matches up with the requests by party affiliation for mail-in ballots.
The data contradicts national polls showing Biden supporters overwhelmingly plan to vote by mail or early in person. According to a Pew Research poll released Friday, 55% of voters who plan to cast their ballot in person before Election Day support Biden, compared to 40% who support President Trump.
Democrats favor early voting and Trump supporting Republicans favor election day voting.
If Biden doesn’t have a substantial lead now, it does not bode well for his chances on election day.
Still, Trump supporters can’t take anything for granted.