In November of 2020, Republicans made huge gains and narrowed the Democrat majority in the House to just a handful of votes.
That alone gives them a huge advantage heading into the 2022 midterms, but there is something even bigger.
Based on census data, Republicans are going to have a massive advantage in redistricting.
Fortune Magazine reports:
New Census data could lead to a Republican landslide in midterm elections
Call it a decennial headache. The 2020 Census and subsequent Congressional redistricting could mean midterm trouble for Democrats, who currently have a precariously loose grip on legislative control.
Every 10 years the United States Census Bureau is charged with completing a full count of the American population, the $15.6 billion task was made especially difficult in 2020 by the COVID-19 pandemic, controversial changes in survey execution by the Trump administration, and the various legal challenges to them.
Now, an arguably more difficult process is underway: analyzing the data and using it to redraw legislative and congressional districts. This redistricting, a job has long been tense and prone to abuse, will be the most challenging in decades, according to experts.
Last week, legislative apportionment numbers started to trickle out from the Census Bureau (after an unusual delay due to COVID), and states were told how many representatives they gained or lost based on population. When these numbers change, as they often do after a decade, the districts need to be redrawn to accommodate the change. This change will have a large impact on which party controls Congress for the next decade.
This could have a huge impact on the election.
Former Democrat campaign chiefs are reportedly alarmed by the party's twin "headaches" — redistricting and retirements — that appear primed to wipe out Democrats' full control of Congress in 2022: https://t.co/bI8TqvXg12 pic.twitter.com/bqxZ7Pu9UP
— Newsmax (@newsmax) May 7, 2021
With redistricting ahead for nearly every House seat, special elections may not be the best predictor of the political climate next year, when Republicans need to net just five seats to take back the majority. https://t.co/qAgTEBIODa
— Roll Call (@rollcall) May 9, 2021
Expect Democrats to go crazy when this process begins. And ignore them.