So far, most people agree that Republicans are favored to win control of the House of Representatives in the November midterms.
Control of the Senate has been a different story. Until now.
Political analyst Sean Trende now says Republicans are likely to win the Senate as well.
He writes at Real Clear Politics:
Republicans Are Favored to Win the Senate
Recently there has been a spate of stories about Republicans’ difficulties in taking over the Senate. These analyses typically focus on candidates’ poor polling numbers in key states and the weakness of the Republican recruiting class.
These aren’t absurd analyses; I’ve referred to the battle between the overall electoral environment and Republican candidate quality as “the irresistible force versus the immovable object” in previous columns. Had the Republican Party fielded its A-team in states like Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona, we probably would not be talking about Democrats even having a shot at retaining the Senate.
At the same time, we shouldn’t get carried away. While Republican candidate quality is an issue, good analysis should not lose sight of the fact that environment matters as well, and probably more so these days. President Joe Biden’s job approval is 37.7% in the RealClearPolitics Average, a mark reached only briefly by former President Donald Trump in August and December of 2017, and never touched by former President Barack Obama. While the map isn’t as favorable for Republicans as it will be in 2024, it isn’t unfavorable, either.
To see this best, let’s consider the races on an individual basis. Republicans need to net just one seat to win control of the Senate. Right now, Democrats have two realistic targets: Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. (Others, like Missouri and North Carolina, probably only come into play if the environment shifts in a dramatically favorable way for Democrats.)…
But let’s also be honest about the daunting nature of the task facing Democrats. Both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have been, on average, two points more Republican than the country as a whole in presidential elections.
If Republicans win the House and the Senate in November, two things are sure to happen.
Democrats and the media will have a massive meltdown.
And Biden’s presidency will be effectively over.