When it comes to the battle for the House of Representatives in the 2022 midterms, Republicans have such an advantage now that they are looking at wins in districts that Biden won by double digits in 2020.
Most analysts think the race for the Senate will be close, but the House is expected to be won by the GOP.
The only question now is the size of the winning margin.
GOP polls show House battlefield stretching into double-digit Biden districts
A round of new internal polling is giving the GOP fresh optimism that the House battleground map is stretching even more favorably in their direction.
Four surveys conducted in late July reveal close races in open seats in Oregon, Colorado and California that President Joe Biden carried by between 11 and 15 points in 2020. Taken all together, GOP operatives view the data as a sign that Biden’s sinking approval numbers could drag Democratic candidates down enough to bring deep blue turf into reach.
The voter registration and partisan lean of the districts all strongly favor Democrats, and it will be a heavy lift for Republicans to flip any of these seats. Moreover, the only polling available in the districts are internal Republican figures, which can sometimes be rosier than reality for the party.
But the numbers comport with general assessments about the state of the House map from strategists of both parties, as well as the close results of the 2021 statewide elections in New Jersey and Virginia. Altogether, the tightening polls suggest that some super-blue seats could be in play in November, which would mean Democrats may have to expend precious resources there on defense — especially because they lack well-funded incumbents.
CBS News is predicting the GOP will only pick up 16 seats. That seems a little low.
🚨 CBS HOUSE FORECAST pic.twitter.com/uj5SBUSSoo
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 31, 2022
In 2010, Republicans picked up 60 seats. Could this year be that big?