When you think of polls that are full of good news for Republicans, the New York Times is probably not the first outlet that comes to mind, but that is what’s happening.
New polling from the Times and Sienna College finds the Republicans in a great position just three weeks before the midterms.
Republicans haven’t had such an advantage since at least 2014.
Feast Your Eyes on the Latest Midterm Poll From the NYT
Right around Labor Day, following a Democratic summer surge, I wrote a lengthy analysis about the state of the 2022 election cycle. My bottom line was that, setting aside all the noise, the so-called political ‘fundamentals’ remained very rough for for the ruling party — so the opposition was still well-positioned to take over at least the House, if not the Senate, as well.
We are now three weeks out from the election. We highlighted movement back toward the GOP in recent polling in a post published yesterday, noting an especially alarming new data set for Democrats produced by the New York Times and its polling partner, Siena College…
A national environment in which Republicans win the House ‘popular vote’ by four points would be a wipeout. Who knows if it will actually materialize, but if it does, it’s easy to imagine a number of close Senate races also tipping the GOP’s way. Winning one-third of Hispanics seems low. Winning nearly one-in-five black voters seems high. Keep an eye on both in the exit polling. That +10 number among independents is key. In the 1994 and 2010 red wave blowouts, indies went red by 14 and 16 points, respectively, per exit polls.
Just take a look at the numbers:
New NYT/Siena poll generic congressional ballot: GOP +4.
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) October 17, 2022
Those are fantastic figures, especially for independent voters.
This suggests that the red wave is happening.