Republicans have made massive gains with independent women voters, according to new polling.
This is the sort of gain that can change the outcome of multiple races.
This is no small change. It was a 32 point swing. Just huge.
From National Review, via Yahoo News:
Independent Women Swing Hard Toward GOP Despite Democrats’ Abortion Push
Republicans made massive gains with independent women in recent weeks as Democrats ramped up their messaging on abortion ahead of the midterm elections.
Forty-nine percent of voters plan to vote for the Republican nominee to represent their House district while 45 percent said they’d back their Democratic opponent, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll released Monday. Of particular note was a 32 point swing among independent women toward the GOP. In September’s iteration of the poll, Democrats boasted a 14 point lead among that demographic, but by October, Republicans held an 18 point advantage.
While Democratic officials and progressive commentators had suggested that the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade might lessen the expected electoral blow of the midterms, the swing toward the GOP among independent women — the group most heavily targeted by Democratic strategists — suggests that their focus on abortion might be to their own detriment.
One pollster is saying that the red wave is going to be bigger than people realize.
Pollster: A Red Wave Is Coming…and It’s Going to Be Larger Than Expected
Pollster Stephen Kent not only said that a red wave is coming, but it will also be quite extensive—larger than projected due to the struggling economy. Democrats have not and will not successfully drag abortion up the ranks on the scale of the top concerns impacting voters.
Kent cited North Carolina’s Senate race to discuss the 2022 midterms since they both have formidable candidates in Republican Congressman Ted Budd and Democrat Sherry Beasley. He added that when two quality candidates are duking it out, the race goes under the radar because the issues are front and center, not their personalities. And the issues right now do not favor Democrats.
We might see a few surprises in November.
Republicans could end up winning in unexpected places.