Three Political Modelers Predict Trump’s Re-election In 2020

Democrats now have a small army of candidates running for president in 2020 but it might not make any difference in the end.

According to three separate yet trusted modelers, Trump’s prospects of winning re-election in 2020 are very high.

The Hill reports:

3 modelers predict Trump reelection: report

Three modelers are predicting President Trump will win reelection in 2020 based on a combination of economic data and incumbent advantages, according to a column in The New York Times.

Steven Rattner wrote that Ray Fair of Yale favors Trump to win based on a model that combines incumbency and gross domestic product growth rates.

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The model predicted Barack Obama’s 2008 popular vote margin within a fraction of a percentage point and got within two-tenths of a point for his 2012 vote share, Rattner, who served as a counselor to the Treasury secretary during the Obama administration, added.

The model correctly predicting an electoral victory for Trump in 2016, but overestimated his popular vote share by about 5.5 points, which Rattner attributed to Trump’s personal unfavorables.

“In other words, a more ‘normal’ Republican would likely have won the popular vote by a substantial margin (instead of losing it by three million votes),” Rattner wrote.

Trump’s status as the incumbent also puts the odds in his favor for 2020, according to the Obama-era official.

Here’s a video report from the FOX Business Network:

FOX Business has actually been reporting on this since March:

Economics models predict Trump wins re-election in a landslide

President Trump is poised to win the 2020 election in a landslide, according to several economic models that have historically been successful in predicting presidential results.

In a new report from Politico Opens a New Window. , economic indicators suggest that the president is in a much stronger position than his Democratic counterparts to win re-election Opens a New Window. .

Fourteen Democrats have already announced their candidacy or exploratory committee for president against Trump, not including unannounced frontrunner former Vice President Joe Biden.

The election is still many months away, but this is still great news for Trump.

He is already well positioned against any Democrat rival.

 

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