Two Political Forecasters Shift Arizona Senate Race From ‘Leans Democrat’ To ‘Toss Up’

The Arizona senate race just took another turn in favor of Republican Blake Masters.

Two different political forecasters have shifted the race from leans Democrat to toss up.

Blake Masters has closed the gap and is polling evenly with Democrat incumbent Mark Kelly.

One of the groups to make the change is the Cook Political Report.

The Hill reports:

Cook Political Report shifts Arizona Senate rating to ‘toss up’

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The Cook Political Report said on Thursday that it would be shifting its rating of the Arizona Senate race from “lean Democrat” to “toss up” less than two weeks ahead of the November midterms.

Jessica Taylor, Cook’s Senate and governors editor, said the nonpartisan election handicapper was shifting the race back to a “toss up” because recent private polling has shown the race between Sen. Mark Kelley (D) and Republican Blake Masters tightening up despite the fact that Democrats are outspending Republicans in the state by a 2-to-1 margin.

Even recent public surveys have shown the two polling within the margin of error. A poll from the left-leaning Data for Progress released on Wednesday showed the candidates tied at 47 percent each.

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While Taylor noted that Kelly was favored to win among all of the Senate seats they’ve rated as “toss ups,” she said that “if Arizona is falling, many states before it already have, most likely, including Nevada and maybe Georgia.”

The other outfit is Politico:

Why Arizona’s Senate race is moving to ‘Toss Up’ in our latest forecast update

Blake Masters can claim little credit for Republicans’ Arizona comeback — but he is reaping the benefits, propelling him back into contention for a key Senate seat some in the GOP once wrote off.

Voters’ dissatisfaction with President Joe Biden’s job performance and a strong campaign from gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake have helped Masters close most of the gap with Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly. What we once described as a “Lean Democratic” race in POLITICO’s Election Forecast is now a “Toss Up,” meaning neither Kelly nor Masters has a significant advantage in the contest.

All of the momentum is moving in favor of Republicans and it’s happening at just the right time.


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