Wisconsin hasn’t voted for a Republican President since 1984.
This year could be different.
But when you adjust the YouGov numbers for the true demographics and voting patterns, guess what?
The numbers get better for Trump. Trump is within one percent of Hillary in Wisconsin!
We know that mainstream media polls don’t reflect the changing voter population. We know they don’t capture the enthusiasm for Trump. We know they put too many minorities in their results.
Statespoll.com has done great work exposing the truth. They do that by adjusting the mainstream polls to who is voting in 2016.
To judge voters, Pollster YouGov uses data from 2012. They justify it this way:
“We have made a judgment call that we would rather use a high quality estimate of the patterns of turnout from the 2012 general election than a low quality estimate of the patterns of turnout for the 2016 election. Given the historical stability of turnout patterns we think this is a good bet, but this is a key place where we might get things wrong if there is a large change in turnout patterns.”
Are patterns different in 2016? You bet!!
Here are votes for candidates by race in Wisconsin (Trump is Red, Hillary is Blue):
When you multiply the racial breakdowns by the YouGov votes, the numbers for Trump improve:
Trump: 89.7*49 + 5.3*7 + 3*25 +2*31 = 45.69%
Hillary: 89.7*43 + 5.3*89 + 3*68 + 2*58 = 46.49%
Trump is at 45.69%, Hillary is at 46.49%.
Less than one percentage point separates them in Wisconsin.
Democrats must be panicking.
Today, they’re sending Joe Biden to Wisconsin.
Good luck with that!